June 10, 2026 (latest): The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) revised its forecast to 3.8%, based on updated Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) data currently tracking at 4.4% over the last 12 months. If that holds, the average person receiving Social Security would see an increase of $77 per month, bringing the average benefit from $2,026.41 to $2,103.41. No official announcement until October 2026.
May 12, 2026: TSCL initially forecast 3.9%, adding about $81 per month. Revised down to 3.8% the following month as new CPI-W data came in.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) announces each year’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) in October. To set it, the SSA tracks the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, over a 12-month period. Data from July through September determines the final percentage. The official Social Security 2027 COLA won’t be known until October 2026.
Early forecasts suggest the Social Security 2027 COLA could land around 3.8%, up from 2026’s 2.8%. If confirmed, the average retired worker would get about $77 more per month starting January 2027.
But a higher COLA doesn’t always mean more money in your pocket. Medicare premiums tend to rise alongside it.
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Local, licensed insurance agents with 25+ years of combined experienceThe COLA applies to everyone receiving Social Security, retirees, survivors, and people on disability. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients also receive it. SSI payments increase on December 31 of the prior year. Most Social Security payments increase starting in January of each year.
In October 2025, the SSA announced a 2.8% COLA for 2026, about $55 more per month for the average retired worker. At the same time, Medicare raised the standard Part B premium from $185 to $202.90 — a $17.90 jump (9.7%). According to The Senior Citizens League, that was the second-largest Part B premium increase in the program’s history. Here’s what that math looked like:
People subject to IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amounts), those who pay higher premiums based on income, saw even less.
Data from the Social Security Administration:
The Social Security COLA 2027 will be officially announced in October 2026. Current estimate: ~3.8%
Since automatic COLAs began in 1975, the average annual increase has been about 3.2%. At 3.8%, the 2027 COLA would be the first above that average since the post-pandemic spike.
Most people with Medicare Part B have their premium automatically deducted from their Social Security check. So the raise announced in October is rarely what lands in your bank account in January.
The 2027 Part B premium will be announced by CMS in November 2026. Based on the 9.7% jump in 2026, another increase is possible. One protection to know: the hold-harmless provision prevents your benefit from dropping below the prior year’s amount if the Part B increase exceeds your COLA dollar gain. But this doesn’t apply to new enrollees or people subject to IRMAA.
Agent tip:
“Even a small COLA increase can push your income into a higher IRMAA bracket, raising your Part B and Part D premiums. A licensed insurance agent can check your bracket and compare plan options to offset rising costs.”
Some Medicare Advantage plans offer a “Part B giveback,” also called a Part B premium reduction. These plans credit back part or all of your monthly Part B premium through your Social Security check, leaving you with more each month.
To qualify, you must be enrolled in both Part A and Part B, live in the plan’s service area, and pay your own Part B premium. Not all plans include this benefit, so comparing your options carefully matters.
The Senior Citizens League reports the average Social Security retirement check for older Americans is $2,026.41 per month. The estimated cost of living for one person in the U.S. is about $2,700 per month. Even after a 3.8% increase, the average benefit would still fall nearly $600 short every month.
According to the Senior Citizens League’s 2026 Loss of Buying Power report, Social Security benefits have lost 13.7% of their buying power from 2016 to 2026. Your benefit is now worth about 86 cents on the dollar compared to 10 years ago. The Senior Citizens League estimates senior prices rose 43.55% over that period, well above the CPI-W’s 37.60%. The Senior Citizens League’s 2026 Senior Survey found that about 13% of seniors, an estimated 7+ million people, get by on less than $1,000 per month.
As Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton said in the TSCL June 2026 COLA announcement: “A 3.8 percent COLA might sound like a lot compared to last year’s 2.8 percent, but it won’t be enough to make up the difference between what seniors bring in and what they need to live with dignity.”
The COLA formula uses the CPI-W, a price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, not retirees. It underrepresents healthcare, housing, and prescription drug costs. Between 2010 and 2024, COLAs rose 58% while retiree expenses rose 73%, according to Investopedia.
Many advocates support switching to the CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly), which better reflects what seniors actually spend. You can contact your representatives or follow The Senior Citizens League to support this effort.
A higher COLA doesn’t always mean more money in your pocket. If your 2025 income could trigger IRMAA in 2027, increased Medicare costs may offset part of your benefit increase. Call (623) 223-8884 to see how a licensed agent can help you explore coverage options and make the most of your COLA increase.
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Possibly. If your combined income exceeds $25,000 (single) or $32,000 (married filing jointly), up to 50–85% of your Social Security benefit may be taxed. A COLA raise can push you over those limits. Talk to a tax professional to plan ahead.
Yes. If a life event, like retirement or a spouse’s death, lowered your income, file SSA Form 44 with your local Social Security office. If approved, Medicare will use your more recent income to recalculate your premium and reduce your costs.
Yes. The same percentage applies to everyone receiving Social Security, no matter when you claimed. Your dollar gain will be larger if your base benefit is higher, and smaller if you claimed early at a reduced rate.
If you’re “dual eligible,” Medicaid may cover your Part B premium, so a premium increase may not come out of your check. You may also qualify for a Medicare Savings Program. Call (623) 223-8884 to find out at no cost.
Yes. People receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) get the same annual COLA as retired workers. The 2027 increase will apply to all disability payments starting in January 2027.
Read more by Renee van Staveren
Since 2009, I've been writing about complicated, technical issues, with the goal of making topics like Medicare and healthcare easier to understand. I've been writing about Medicare since 2021 and healthcare since 2019. I am an AmeriCorps alumni. I enjoy gardening, reading, and DIYing.
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